Publication Detail

Formulation of a Model for Ship Transit Risk

Hauke Kite-Powell, Di Jin, Nicholas Patrikalakis
1996
80 pp.
MITSG 96-19
$10.00 DOM
ORDER HARDCOPY

The Transit Risk Project focuses on the development of models from historical casualty data to predict the risk of navigational vessel casualties during transits into and out of port. During the first year, the project has focused on a model of grounding risk at the port level, with special emphasis on the contribution of inaccuracies in navigation charts. Much of the first year's work centered on the collection and analysis of data on groundings in five U.S. ports (Boston, New York/New Jersey, Tampa, Houston/Galveston, and San Francisco) between 1981 and 1995. Grounding rates, and how they are affected by factors specific to each port, are the quantity to be predicted by the model. The results of the work suggest that there is sufficient information in the available data to construct a port-level model with some explanatory and predictive ability. Descriptions of the available data and specific recommendations for future data collection to improve the basis for modeling of this kind are included in the progress report.

type: Technical reports

Parent Project

Project No.: 1996-RC-49-MC
Title: Formulation of a Model for Ship Transit Risk

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